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Keywords

socially aware, patent analysis, LDA model, development trends, new energy vehicles

Abstract

Detecting and identifying the future development trend of technologies as early as possible is crucial for government and enterprises, as it can help enterprises and government carry out technology strategic planning in advance, and it is also an important mean for reasonable resource planning. The method of detecting the technology development trend through text of literature and patents has gradually matured, which is relying on the wisdom of experts only. However, some relevant researches have proven that the public will also have a significant impact on the future development of technology, public participation and socially aware will affect the direction of technology development, because it will motivate stakeholders to shape the development process of technology according to public needs, and guide changes in technology hot spots, which cannot be obtained from patent data alone, so the views of the public should be taken into account. This paper proposes a model for identifying technology development trend based on socially aware and patents, which can avoid the weakness of using patents only. Firstly, the LDA model is used to extract the technical topics in socially aware information and patent text separately, these topics represent the hot spots of social concerns and R&D. Secondly, the similarity of the technical topics of the two types of data is measured through Word2Vec. Then, the fusion analysis and difference analysis of the technical topics with high similarity and low similarity were carried out respectively. Topics with high similarity will be merged into one topic word and serve as optional emerging technologies, and an evaluation system for emerging technologies will be built to measure and rank these optional technologies; Topics with low similarity fall into two cases: one is the topic that exists only in socially aware, which means there are potential needs of the public, and use IPA analysis method to evaluate their prospects. And the other is the topic that exists only in patent data, it shows that they have received certain attention in the accumulation of historical technical research, but have not been able to make breakthroughs so far, at the same time, these technologies do not meet the needs of public, nor can they follow the development trend of the times, so the resource input can be reduced appropriately. Finally, the new energy vehicle technology is as a case study to analyze the effectiveness and feasibility of the method. In this study, a total of 7 emerging technologies are identified, including permanent magnet motor, battery capacity, fast charging, electric-driven system, thermal management system, body structure, battery management system, among which battery management system, thermal management system, and fast charging are the most critical. It also identifies the Internet of Vehicles technology is in the advantageous area and the technology has most promising development prospects from the perspective of socially aware. What’s more,it is identified that battery recycling, vehicle control, and installation&fixed technologies are not hot technologies. The research in this article not only provides new data sources to compensate for the lack of integrity and timeliness of patent data, but also enriches research perspectives. Through the analysis, evaluation of the future development trend of new energy vehicle technology is realized, which helps enterprises and government capture development opportunities in a timely manner, and provides decision-making support for technology R&D strategies.

DOI

10.16315/j.stm.2023.05.007

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