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Keywords

green technology innovation; carbon emission reduction; effective market; active government

Abstract

Achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality represents a broad and profound systemic transformation of the economic and social system, which fundamentally relies on green technological innovation. Using provincial panel data from 2008 to 2021, this study constructs a panel model to empirically analyze the impact of green technological innovation on carbon emissions and its underlying mechanisms. Within the context of socialist market economy with Chinese characteristics, we further construct a panel threshold model to identify whether there is a threshold effect of green technological innovation on carbon emissions based on efficient market and active government. Four principal findings emerge: First, green technological innovation significantly reduces carbon emission intensity. This conclusion still holds after a series of robustness tests and endogeneity tests, thereby substantiating its strategic value for dual-carbon policy implementation. Second, qualitative enhancements in green technological innovation exhibit superior emission reduction effects outcomes compared to quantitative expansion. At present, the overall strength of China��s green technological innovation needs to be improved. The landscape of green innovation presents dual deficiencies, at the macro level, the proportion of green invention patents is relatively low, and the layout of high-quality technological innovation is relatively small, while at the micro level, there is the problem of fraudulent and strategic green innovation. However, the quantitative dimension of green technological innovation has a relatively limited effect on the suppression of carbon emissions, this dual deficiency consequently undermines systemic sustainability outcomes. Therefore, under the background of the dual-carbon strategy, we should focus on improving the quality of green technological innovation by strengthening policy guidance and support, and taking necessary measures to deal with speculation in green technology innovation, so as to better contribute to the dualcarbon goal. Third, the heterogeneity test shows that the inhibiting effect of green technological innovation on carbon emissions decreases from the eastern, central to western regions, and its effect is stronger in the regions with a higher degree of industrial rationalization. Therefore, regions should optimize green technology innovation policies and industrial policies according to local conditions, so as to better serve the dual-carbon strategy. Fourth, the threshold model shows that the carbon reduction effect of green technological innovation has a double threshold effect based on the active government and the effective market. When the active government is the threshold variable, the inhibition effect of green technological innovation on carbon emission shows a decreasing tendency, and when the effective market is the threshold variable, it shows the characteristics of decreasing initially and then increasing. The result underscore the necessity of coordinated market-government governance. Therefore, there is a need for a two-pronged approach, not only to improve the market effectiveness and build market-oriented green technological innovation, but also to clarify the boundaries of the active government, and to explore a new path of carbon emission governance in which the government fills in the position but does not lack the position, and puts in place but does not overstep the position. Collectively, these findings provide important references for a deeper understanding of the carbon-reduction effects of green technological innovation, and how to explore its carbon emission reduction potential from the perspectives of effective market and active government.

DOI

10. 16315/j. stm. 2025. 01. 008

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